Beyond the Box
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Experimental · model

Beyond the Box Value Model

Estimate season-level player value from observed per-minute impact and playing-time exposure.

Version
v1.1.0
Updated
2026-09-01
Evidence
The selected regular-season player data period attached to each ranking edition.

Purpose

Estimate season-level player value from observed per-minute impact and playing-time exposure.

Output

The value_score used as the rank key for the Beyond the Box 100.

Inputs

  • Eligible player-season UB Impact
  • Games played
  • Minutes per game
  • Replacement level

Model

  • Estimate replacement level from the 15th percentile of the eligible season impact population.
  • Scale impact above replacement by the documented value scale.
  • Weight that quality by minutes played relative to a 2,000-minute season baseline.

Evaluation

A public model card exists, but no out-of-sample performance table is currently published. This page does not imply forecast accuracy.

Calibration

Not a probability model. A missing score is unavailable, not a zero or an Impact fallback.

Limitations

  • It is descriptive season value, not a forecast of future performance.
  • The underlying impact features are box-score based and do not recover every defensive or lineup effect.
  • It should not be read as WAR, wins, salary value, or a probability.

Changelog

  • v1.1.0 is the canonical UB Value snapshot contract version; no coefficient changes are made by the snapshot writer.