Contract Value Model

Purpose

Put documented NBA salaries into season and cap context before comparing cost with estimated player value.

Output

Cap share, cap-equivalent salary, and a comparison context for contract analysis.

Inputs

• Documented salary
• Salary-cap reference
• Season
• Player value context

Model

• Normalize salary by the season's salary cap rather than comparing nominal dollars across years.
• Match contract observations to the relevant season and player context.
• Keep the result descriptive: it does not forecast free-agent price or grade a front office decision.

Evaluation

Unit and contract-context checks are documented. Calibration against realized contracts and historical holdouts remains unpublished.

Calibration

Not a probability model; no calibrated probability output is presented.

Limitations

• Options, guarantees, supermax rules, trades, and apron restrictions are not inferred when the source does not document them.
• A cap-share comparison is not the same thing as surplus value.
• Missing contract rows remain unavailable rather than estimated.

Changelog

• Initial contract and cap-share normalization card.